This is a preliminary version; we encourage users to contact us for further information and feedback.

Instructions and elicitation form

The Ember Elicitation Desk is a tool to facilitate structured expert elicitation to illustrate climate change risks through "burning embers" diagrams. This tool presents expert contributions in a synthetic form to facilitate discussion between experts during "elicitation cycles" (it does not "prescribe" anything with regard to the final diagram). The approach is based on the methodology exposed in Zommers et al. 2020 (section 'Methods in the SRCCL' and figure 5).

Elicitation template

A single person (a facilitator) needs to upload all files filled by experts at once, following the file submission process below. Each expert needs to provide his/her information about a system at risk using a standard template in Excel format (click on 'Elicitation template' to get it). The template contains specific instructions on how experts should conduct their assessment and provide the resulting data, while the "Tutorial" menu above provides more general information on the process (and should therefore at least be read by facilitators).

Example If you want to test the application rapidly, a set of example files based on IPCC SRCCL (related to the first round illustrated in Zommers et al. 2020) is available on the right. Please do not use the example files as template, as the actual template (above) contains additional information to experts contributing to the elicitation. To learn more, read the tutorial and the guidelines provided in the template.

Upload & process

To start, select your data files here. You may select files one by one or several files at once (click on 'Add files' to open the selection window, then use CTRL-A, or cmd-A on Mac):

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Probability distribution (keep the default value if you do not have a specific need or wish; we do not expect large difference in results):

When all the above is ready,

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