Climate Risks Embers Explorer
Welcome!
If you already know what "burning embers" are (in the context of climate change risks), jump to Introduction to this app below.
If you already know this app, click on the menus above or here → Show embers, do not show the introduction at next visit. To return to information about the app, click on ℹ in the menus (on the right).
What is this for?
"Burning embers" are an illustration of how climate change risks and impacts on humans and ecosystems increase with global warming (Zommers et al., 2020)Burning embers: towards more transparent and robust climate-change risk assessments, Nat Rev Earth Environ, https://doi.org/10/gg985p, 2020.. The name comes from the colours used, which are reminiscent of a 'burning ember' (see below). The aim of this app is to present burning ember diagrams in an homogenous and accessible way.
The application can reconstruct the burning ember diagrams from all IPCC reports so far (until AR6 included), with a view to link the diagrams with information describing what they represent:
- The "scope" of an ember: what risk it describes,
- Evidence supporting the assessment of an increasing risk in a particular range of global warming,
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What are 'Burning embers'?
An annotated example of a burning ember is shown next to this paragraph. It is used to synthesise the assessment of risks to humans and ecosystems as a function of global warming (or other indicators of climate change). This type of diagram is used in IPCC reports since 2001 (IPCC, 2001).
The results have been expressed using a colour graduation going from white to purple, reflecting four risk levels (Undetectable, Moderate, High, Very high) as shown in the example on the right. The gradual changes in colour in between these defined risk levels are called (risk) "transitions". Transitions reflect the fact that risks may increase gradually from a defined level of risk to the next, as well as uncertainties regarding the level of warming that may correspond to an increasing risk (with or without thresholds).
Each risk level has a specific definition in IPCC reports, for example "high risk" implies severe and widespread impacts that are judged to be high on one or more criteria. In this app, you will get more information on the definition of each of the risk levels, as well as the confidence levels associated with the assessment, by hovering the cursor over the colours and symbols in the legend (example). For a more in-depth presentation, see IPCC's 6th assessment report (AR6), chapter 16 (O'Neill et al. 2022)Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.025. For the complete reference, see References and disclaimer .
A manuscript presenting the data made available through this app and discussing the challenges and benefits involved in data homogenisation is being submitted to Earth System Science Data (ESSD). It explores potential uses of the data through aggregated analyses of risks and adaptation benefits.
Introduction to this app
Instructions on how to use this app can be accessed by clicking ℹ in the menus (on the right).
There are three main ways to use this app/site, by starting from
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The Figures menu: View the burning embers by 'topic' as in the IPCC figures which these come from, with explanations provided interactively. What is new here is the close association between the embers and explanations about the assessed risks and why they increase at a particular level. It is a good way to start;
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The Risks menu → search for embers with your criteria → select embers and draw custom figures;
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The Risks menu (→ search for embers) → click on a specific ember: view all information about this ember in a text format (table).