Europe: losses in crop production - high adaptation
Risk of agriculture productivity loss, including crop failure and decrease in pasture quality, mainly driven by the increase in the likelihood of compound heat and dry conditions and extreme weather. This ember assumes high levels of implementation of multiple adaptation options (see the description of the transition). [13.10.2.2]
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0.8
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medium confidence
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1.1
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Under high adaptation, the use of irrigation can substantially reduce risks by both reducing canopy temperature and drought impacts. Water availability and competing uses are considered in the water scarcity ember (key risk 3, embers 141 and 143). Where the ability to irrigate is limited by water availability, other adaptation options are insufficient to mitigate crop losses in some sub-regions, particularly at 3°C GWL and above, with an increase in risk from north to south and higher risk for late-season crops such as maize. [13.10.2.2 and Table SM13.28]
Changes in cultivars, sowing and harvest dates can reduce yield losses, but are insufficient to fully reduce losses projected at 3°C warming and above, with an increase of risk from north to south and for crops growing later in the season such as maize. Crop breeding for drought and heat tolerance can improve the sustainability of agricultural production under future climate. Mixed, diversified systems, agroforestry and agroecology contribute to adaptation, but they have long lead times due to farmer socio-economic and policy constraints. [Figure 13.30 and Table SM13.28]
Potential adaptation changes are summarised in SM13.28, figure 13.30 and section 13.10.2.2.
ecosystem services, food, agriculture, RKR-F
Table SM13.28
Bednar-Friedl., B., R. Biesbroek, D.N. Schmidt, P. Alexander, K Yngve Børsheim, J. Carnicer, E. Georgopoulou, M. Haasnoot, G Le Cozannet, P. Lionello, O. Lipka, C. Möllmann, V. Muccione, T. Mustonen, D Piepenburg, L Whitmarsh, 2022: Europe. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Pörtner, H.-O., D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1817-1927. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.015
Alternative direct download: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter13.pdf
Data and additional information are usually obtained from the supplementary material (SM):
Bednar-Friedl., B., R. Biesbroek, D.N. Schmidt, P. Alexander, K Yngve Børsheim, J. Carnicer, E. Georgopoulou, M. Haasnoot, G Le Cozannet, P. Lionello, O. Lipka, C. Möllmann, V. Muccione, T. Mustonen, D Piepenburg, L Whitmarsh, 2022: Europe Supplementary Material. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Pörtner, H.-O., D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)], url: www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter13_SM.pdf
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Last updated on March 8, 2025, 9:26 p.m..