Select risks
Select figure

Risks to selected land system elements as a function of global mean surface temperature increase since pre-industrial times

Embers from figure 7.1 [source] in SRCCL - chapter 7: Risk Management and Decision making in Relation to Sustainable Development

To get information on the risks and explanations of their increase with climate change, hover the cursor over each part of the diagram.
Vertical axis & climate scenarios:

Caption of the original figure 7.1 in SRCCL:

Impacts on human and ecological systems include: 1) economic loss and declines in livelihoods and ecosystem services from water scarcity in drylands, 2) economic loss and declines in livelihoods and ecosystem services from reduced land productivity due to soil erosion, 3) vegetation loss and shifts in vegetation structure, 4) damage to infrastructure, altered land cover, accelerated erosion and increased air pollution from fires, 5) damage to natural and built environment from permafrost thaw related ground instability, 6) changes to crop yield and food availability in low-latitude regions and 7) increased disruption of food supply stability. Risks are global (2, 3, 4, 7) and specific to certain regions (1, 5, 6). Selected components are illustrative and not intended to be fully comprehensive of factors influencing food security, land degradation and desertification. The supporting literature and methods are provided in Supplementary Material. Risk levels are estimated assuming medium exposure and vulnerability driven by moderate trends in socioeconomic conditions broadly consistent with an SSP2 pathway.

Reference of the original figure and/or data:

Hurlbert, M., J. Krishnaswamy, E. Davin, F.X. Johnson, C.F. Mena, J. Morton, S. Myeong, D. Viner, K. Warner, A. Wreford, S. Zakieldeen, Z. Zommers, 2019: Risk Management and Decision making in Relation to Sustainable Development. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [Shukla, P.R., J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 673-800. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157988.009
Alternative direct download: www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2022/11/SRCCL_Chapter_7.pdf

Included embers (click on an ember to view its data and metadata):

Ember name Report
Dryland water scarcity SRCCL-Chapter7
Soil erosion SRCCL-Chapter7
Vegetation loss SRCCL-Chapter7
Wildfire damage: risks to humans systems (mainly) SRCCL-Chapter7
Risks to humans and ecosystems due to permafrost degradation SRCCL-Chapter7
Tropical crop yield decline SRCCL-Chapter7
Food supply instabilities SRCCL-Chapter7

Disclaimer: The Embers Explorer project is not affiliated with the IPCC, is not approved or authorized by the IPCC, and is not an IPCC product. The figures presented herein are not IPCC figures, have not been subject to formal IPCC review processes and have not been endorsed by the IPCC. The IPCC does not assume any responsibility for their accuracy.

However, every effort is made to ensure that data resulting from IPCC assessments are accurately represented here, with due reference to sources.

An archive of the database on which this app is based is available on Zenodo (doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12626977) under the CC-BY 4.0 license. We have confirmed with the IPCC that this data can be distributed in this way.