Arctic: ocean, sea ice, permafrost - human and natural systems
Arctic natural and human systems, including high latitude tundra, boreal forests, permafrost, and sea-ice. [3.4.13, 3.SM.3.3.6]
Undetectable to moderate (white to yellow) |
min |
0.0
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high confidence
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max |
0.7
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The increased rate of summer sea ice melt was detected and attributed to climate change by the year 2000 (corresponding to warming of 0.7°C). High-latitude tundra and boreal forest are particularly at risk, and woody shrubs are already encroaching into the tundra. [3.4.13, 3.SM.3.3.6]
Moderate to high (yellow to red) |
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0.7
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high confidence
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1.5
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As a consequence of polar amplification, biome (major ecosystem type) shifts are likely in the Arctic, with increases in fire frequency, degradation of permafrost, and tree cover likely to occur at 1.5°C of warming [3.5.4.2]. At 1.5°C of warming an ice-free Arctic Ocean is considered unlikely [3.4.13]
High to very high (red to purple) |
min |
1.5
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high confidence
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2.0
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By 2°C of warming an ice-free Arctic Ocean is considered likely and this unique ecosystem is projected to be unable to adapt [3.4.13]. Further amplification of the above changes is expected under 2°C of global warming [3.5.4.2]. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would prevent the loss of an estimated permafrost area of 2 million km2 over future centuries compared to 2°C [3.SM.3.3.6]
The report also notes that "thawing permafrost and changing weather patterns are projected to increasingly impact people, infrastructure and industries in the Arctic" (section 3.5.4.2).
ecosystems, permafrost, cryosphere, ocean, arctic, polar regions, polar amplification, human-systems, RKR-B.X, RKR-C, RKR-X
3.SM.3.3.6; 3.4.13; 3.5.4.2
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K.L. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, and G. Zhou, 2018: Impacts of 1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 175-312. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.005
Alternative direct download: ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/SR15_Chapter_3_HR.pdf
Data and additional information are usually obtained from the supplementary material (SM):
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K.L. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, and G. Zhou, 2018: Impacts of 1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems Supplementary Material. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)], url: ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/09/SR15_3SM_High_Res.pdf
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Last updated on Nov. 5, 2024, 9:22 p.m..